Solar Cell Expected Production Capacity for 2021
Overview of Solar Cell Manufacturing
This video forecasts production and market trends of solar cells over the next few years with Joseph Johnson, Manager of Market Intelligence at CEA. Be sure to check out the entire webinar on PV Solar Demand.
Video Transcript
Moving on to cell production… In addition to wafers and future polysilicon production capacity, there's sizable expansions continuing throughout the [solar] industry, even as utilization rates are slowing, and the industry recognizes that there is an over-capacity of production at these downstream stages.
2021 Available Solar Cell Production Capacity vs. Forecasted Installations
Solar Cell Manufacturing and Upgrading Capacity
Almost all new cell processing capacity that was brought on within the last year is easily upgradable to 210, to be able to process a 210 millimeter wafer. If not the capacity is already brought online with the intention to manufacturer up to the largest wafer format available. What this means is that once the upstream polysilicon expansions come online, additional raw material is made available to wafer suppliers and ingot suppliers. There would be - there will be essentially an unlimited supply of these new, larger format cells in the Chinese market for module production by the end of 2022.
Forecasts on Cell Size and Pricing
What this is also likely to do is start to shrink the price premium we're seeing on initial launches of your 182 millimeter modules or your 210 millimeter modules. And then into the future, we expect that any size smaller than a 166 millimeter cell is likely going to start rapidly disappearing from the market while 166 millimeter cells will continue to remain available for certain residential and commercial applications. If you are a buyer in and around the non-American region this means that switching to any sort of new module type will mean that there is a ample amount of new production coming online in the future. We're likely to see a very stable supply of these new products. Again, starting to be online towards the end of 2022.
Global Solar Cell Production Overview
End-of-Year Solar Cell Nameplate Capacities by Wafer Processing Size, Non-China Capacities
For American buyers and those with region locked markets there will be a delay in having ample amounts of this new large format cell production capacity.
But we are seeing a very quick shift to some suppliers, either Chinese suppliers with overseas production or other suppliers with non China production being able to process large format wafers and being able to supply new 182 or 210 millimeter cells to module producers worldwide. Taking a look at the size and the expansion plans of different cell size lines, 182 millimeter cells will be much more available in the non China market, just because these cells are being pushed by LONGI, Jinko, some of the bigger name suppliers with a heavier overseas manufacturing presence. But over time, we certainly expect that there will be approximately equal amounts of 210 and 182 millimeter cells available for a non China requiring audience.
About the Presenter
Joseph C. Johnson is a Manager of Market Intelligence for Clean Energy Associates (CEA). At CEA, he studies PV market trends, technology, upstream supply chains, and supplier quality as part of CEA's Technology and Quality and Market Intelligence departments.
